Judging by data from the previous two waves, a third wave “would likely last for at least eight to 10 weeks”.

“It is important to note that many things can shift that, so a shift in behaviour can flatten and slow and make the third wave longer,” said Cloete.

The objective of flattening the curve, even if it made it longer, would be to relieve pressure on health facilities.

There have been more than 9,000 trauma cases in the past month, and such cases compete for beds in hospitals as Covid-19 patients requiring hospitalisation increase.

Cloete said just under half of the trauma cases resulted from interpersonal violence and were thus avoidable.


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